The Department of Health estimates that coronavirus cases in the Philippines are likely to surpass 75,000 in June if they are not promptly dealt with.
“This is a modeling estimate that we did along with experts from the WHO and our epidemiologists here in our country. We're saying that we could reach 75,000 cases if we do not put proper interventions., ”Said Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire.
“But we say we can flatten this curve. We can prevent this number from happening, so we can spread it across many months if we can implement stringent measures like social distancing, ”he said.
For now, according to Vergeire, it is possible for two people to be infected by its carrier so social distancing is strictly enforced.
To date, there have been 193 confirmed cases in the Philippines, 14 of which have died while seven have recovered.
Data scientists Christopher Monterola and Erika Fille Legara also calculated that 26,000 patients in the Philippines could get COVID-19 by the end of March only if it's not contained.
However, Vergeire said it's possible to slow the rate at which people get sick - what experts call "freezing the curve" - as long as drastic measures are implemented to contain the spread.
"We can spread the infections for many months, but only if we can implement strict measures like social travel, ”he said.
President Rodrigo Duterte has declared the state of calamity in the Philippines as the COVID-19 case continues to rise, with the total infection today at 307 with 19 killed and 13 recovered.
The President also put the entire island of Central Luzon on lockdown, where all residents were ordered to stay home unless deemed necessary under guidelines set by the national government's inter-agency force.
Many provinces, cities, and municipalities in Visayas and Mindanao have also declared local lockdowns and put their localities under a state of calamity.
WHO calls for "aggressive" action in Southeast Asia to defeat the rapid spread of coronavirus.
Source: Abante, Rappler (with updated data.)