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| (Latest satellite imagery, 9:00 pm, via Himawari satellite) |
In its latest bulletin, the weather bureau said that Auring is now moving northwestward at 25 kph with a maximum sustained winds of 65 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 80 kph.
PAGASA said that it continues to move in this direction in the next 48 hours and based on its forecast track and its probability cone, this storm may initially make landfall over the Dinagat Islands-Eastern Samar (southern portion including Homonhon Island)-Leyte area tomorrow morning.
The center of Tropical Storm "AURING" was last seen at 7:00 pm today, based on all available data at 275 km East of Surigao City, Surigao del Norte (09.8 °N, 128.0 °E )
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| (Latest forecast track from PAGASA, February 21 at 8:00 pm) |
"AURING" is forecast to maintain its strength in the next 12 hours. However, the likelihood of weakening into a tropical depression before it makes landfall is not yet ruled out. After landfall, “AURING” is forecast to weaken considerably due to significant terrain interaction and the increasing wind shear, leading to deterioration into a remnant low within 48 hours, possibly sooner.
Tonight (February 21) through tomorrow morning (February 22): Moderate to heavy rains are expected over Caraga, Eastern Visayas, Misamis Oriental, Bukidnon, Camiguin, Catanduanes, Albay, and Sorsogon. As well as light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Zamboanga Peninsula, MIMAROPA, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, Quezon, and the rest of Bicol Region, Visayas, and Northern Mindanao.
"Under these conditions, isolated to scattered flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides are likely during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps," PAGASA said in the bulletin.
As of 8 p.m., storm warning signals are raised in the following areas:
Signal No. 2: VISAYAS - Central and southern portions of Eastern Samar, central and southern portions of Samar, the eastern portion of Leyte, and the eastern portion of Southern Leyte; MINDANAO — Dinagat Islands, and Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands.
Signal No. 1: LUZON — Sorsogon, Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, Albay, Catanduanes, the eastern portion of Camarines Sur, and Romblon; VISAYAS — Northern Samar, the rest of Eastern Samar, the rest of Samar, Biliran, the rest of Leyte, the rest of Southern Leyte, Cebu, Bohol, Siquijor, Negros Oriental, the northern and central portions of Negros Occidental, the northern and central portions of Iloilo, and Capiz, Guimaras, and Aklan; MINDANAO — Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, and Bukidnon.
Signal No. 2: VISAYAS - Central and southern portions of Eastern Samar, central and southern portions of Samar, the eastern portion of Leyte, and the eastern portion of Southern Leyte; MINDANAO — Dinagat Islands, and Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands.
Signal No. 1: LUZON — Sorsogon, Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, Albay, Catanduanes, the eastern portion of Camarines Sur, and Romblon; VISAYAS — Northern Samar, the rest of Eastern Samar, the rest of Samar, Biliran, the rest of Leyte, the rest of Southern Leyte, Cebu, Bohol, Siquijor, Negros Oriental, the northern and central portions of Negros Occidental, the northern and central portions of Iloilo, and Capiz, Guimaras, and Aklan; MINDANAO — Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, and Bukidnon.
Meanwhile, according to US-JTWC, Dujuan (Auring) will continue tracking northwestward, making initial landfall over Leyte, Philippines, after 12 hours and then cross the Visayan islands, clipping the southern tip of Mindoro, before exiting into the South China Sea. Tacloban News Update (with excerpts from PAGASA's public advisory and US-JTWC)