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| (Latest satellite imagery from Himawari-8, February 17, 2021 8:30 am) |
TACLOBAN CITY — The tropical depression off Mindanao may enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility in the next 12 to 18 hours, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said on Wednesday.
In a public tropical cyclone, advisory released at 5:00 am, February 17, the LPA near Palau has already developed into a Tropical Depression (invest 91W on JTWC).
Once inside the PAR, it will be named “AURING” as the first tropical cyclone of the 2021 season. On the forecast track, the Tropical Depression is expected to move westward to west-northwestward over the Philippine Sea east of Mindanao.
Forecast models are in good agreement that 91W will strengthen and consolidate as it tracks west-northwestward and has a high chance of developing into a significant tropical cyclone over the next 24 hours.
The area of convection (Invest 91W) previously located near 7.3N 135.6E is now located near 7.4N 134.7E, 28 km (15 nautical miles) east of Babelthuap, Palau, FSM. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 35 to 45 km/h according to JTWC.
It is currently forecast to make landfall over the eastern coast of the Caraga-Davao Region area on Saturday or Sunday as a Tropical Storm.
The Tropical Depression is currently not affecting any part of the country. However, localities in Visayas, Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, Caraga, Northern Mindanao, Davao Region, Cotabato, and Lanao del Sur.
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| PAGASA's forecast track shows that Auring will traverse Central and Western Visayas, and eastern portions of Mindanao. It is currently forecast to make landfall over the eastern coast of the Caraga-Davao Region area on Saturday or Sunday as a Tropical Storm. |
"Meanwhile, the Tail-End of a Frontal System will bring moderate to heavy rains over Eastern Visayas and light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Central Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Camiguin, and Surigao del Norte today. " PAGASA said. iTacloban with reports from PAGASA's public advisory